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Of the late runners with big odds, he appears the most likely to cash a check in the Arkansas Derby. After turning in a dismal effort in the Tampa Bay Derby, he rallied late to get up for third in a strong allowance race at Oaklawn Park. Still, he was a long way from the top two and was likely aided by a very fast early pace. (Current Kentucky Derby points leaderboard). King Guillermo won the G2 Tampa Bay Derby at odds of 49-1 last out for Juan Carlos Avila. Who with five Arkansas Derby victories is the race's.

Here are the highlights of the field (Odds are the morning line track odds). Race 11 – Arkansas Derby (G1) – Division 1. 1 1/8 Miles – 3 Year Olds – Purse: $500,000. Charlatan (1-1). Check out the latest 2020 Arkansas Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir's picks for the Arkansas Derby. 2020 Arkansas Derby divisions, odds, post positions. Division 1, Race 11. The Arkansas Derby is the longest race Charlatan has taken part in, surpassing the eight-furlong run at Santa Anita Park on March 14. He is also fairly new to racing with two events on his resume.

Nadal will put his 3-for-3 record on the line Saturday in the second division of the Grade 1, $500,000 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. But as a highly-touted Bob Baffert-trained colt, bettors can’t expect a good betting price even in this field packed with fellow prominent 3-year-olds. Also, the presence of one other quality frontrunner may compromise his chances.

Odds and value aside, Nadal is a talented runner who can win this race, especially if the expected fast pace scenario does not pan out. But there is also a recent upset winner with tactical speed who could find himself in a great stalking position. This particular horse owns a TimeformUS Speed Figure one point off Nadal’s best.

The second division of the Arkansas Derby is carded as Race 13 with a post time of 7:43 p.m. ET. Here’s a full look at the field with projected odds by Horse Racing Nation.

RELATED: Arkansas Derby Division 1 odds and analysis

1. Finnick the Fierce, 30-1 (Dialed In – Rey Hernandez/Martin Garcia – 6: 2-1-0): This one-eyed closer has proven himself capable of hitting the board against good horses. His runner-up finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall to Silver Prospector shows this. Notice that he beat Tiz the Law in that race. He also ran fourth in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) in January, completing the superfecta. In recent times, he won via disqualification in a local April 4 allowance optional claimer. Given his potent late kick, trifecta and superfecta players need to include this horse. Use underneath.

2. Saratogian, 50-1 (Empire Maker – Rodolphe Brisset/Joe Talamo – 2: 1-0-0): In a March 27 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream, he stalked the pace before fading sharply to ninth, beaten by 13 lengths. Why does Brisset believe this colt belongs competing against a Grade 1 field? He could develop into a nice horse down the road. But at this point, graded stakes company looks too difficult for him. Toss.

3. Storm the Court, 10-1 (Court Vision – Peter Eurton/Flavien Prat – 6: 2-0-2): From a TimeformUS figure standpoint, the 2-year-old champion is in the mix with a 112 and 113 this year. But he disappointed in both of those starts, finishing fourth in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) won by Nadal and third in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), 5 ¾ lengths behind Authentic. Furthermore, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runners are consistent losers in 2020, with the most recent example found in last weekend’s Bachelor Stakes when Eight Rings faded to an underwhelming fifth as the 3/2 favorite. For those who still want to believe, his San Felipe wasn’t terrible. Toss.

4. King Guillermo, 6-1 (Uncle Mo – Juan Carlos Avila/Samy Camacho – 4: 2-0-1): At first glance, trusting a recent longshot winner at a significantly lower price doesn’t sound like a winning strategy. But there are strong positive notes to point out about the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner. For one, King Guillermo’s only poor race came in his career debut at 5 ½ furlongs. After that, he broke his maiden in a one-mile turf race by 6 ¼ lengths before finishing a good third in the Pulpit Stakes won by Sole Volante. Without any good dirt form to study, bettors let him go at 49-1 off the layoff in the Tampa Bay Derby. Under mild urging, King Guillermo won by 4 ¾ lengths and turned the tables on Sole Volante. For the win, he earned a 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a number only one point off Nadal’s 120 in the Rebel Stakes (G2). At a higher price than Nadal, King Guillermo is enticing. He could use his speed to sit right behind Nadal and Wells Bayou, giving him a good position for when those two speedballs become tired late. The pick.

5. Nadal, 7/5 (Blame – Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario – 3: 3-0-0): The expected favorite Nadal is undefeated with wins in the San Vicente Stakes and Rebel Stakes. But at this point, he only knows one way to run. Nadal set the pace in his maiden win, then contested the pace with Ginobili in the San Vicente before overcoming a brutal pace scenario in the Rebel, staving off multiple waves of challengers. Now Nadal stretches out to nine furlongs in a race containing another quality pacesetter in Wells Bayou. Can Nadal put away Wells Bayou at a longer distance while holding off the stalkers and closers? He might survive the pace again. But at close to even money (or less), there are other options to consider before singling this talented Baffert-trained colt. Win contender.

6. Code Runner, 50-1 (Honor Code – Steven Asmussen/Stewart Elliott – 8: 2-2-1): As with Saratogian, it is difficult to see why Code Runner is entered in this graded stakes race. He won his recent allowance start at Sam Houston but needed an all-out drive to do so. Two starts ago in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer, he was walloped by Saturday’s Bachelor winner Long Weekend, finishing third by 12 ¼ lengths. Three starts ago, he ran last at Sunland Park, beaten 24 ¼ lengths by Rowdy Yates. Despite the connections, it will take a miracle for him to contend. Toss.

7. Silver Prospector, 6-1 (Declaration of War – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 9: 3-0-2): For what it is worth, Silver Prospector did encounter some trouble in the Rebel Stakes. When moving on the rail approaching the far turn, he ran into traffic and had to wait longer. At the top of the stretch, Silver Prospector then tried to tip out, but Three Technique made it difficult for him to find room. As a final blow to his chances, Coach Bahe came out and took Silver Prospector’s path in midstretch. With that said, does Silver Prospector want to go nine furlongs? His Southwest Stakes win over Wells Bayou came at 1 1/16 miles. He will get the right pace setup, although he needs to turn the tables on Nadal and also defeat some new faces as well. Despite some concerns, he merits enough respect to earn second or third preference from me. Win contender.

8. Fast Enough, Scratched (Eddington – Rafael Becerra/Tyler Baze – 3: 2-0-1): Given Santa Anita’s current situation, it is not surprising to see this Cal-bred make the trip to Oaklawn. Back in January, he won the California Cup Derby by a neck with a 96 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But he improved on the cutback in the San Vicente, finishing third, two lengths behind Nadal with a competitive 111. He also crossed the wire in front of Storm the Court by neck. Did he improve because of the shorter distance? Is the 111 figure high? Is Storm the Court worse than most handicappers believe? Even at a price, there are too many questions to trust Fast Enough. Toss.

9. Taishan, 12-1 (Twirling Candy – Richard Baltas/David Cohen – 6: 2-0-1): On the far turn of the Oaklawn Stakes, this colt looked like a potential winner after securing the lead from tired pace horses in Gold Street, Sir Rick and Flap Jack. But Taishan grudgingly faded in mid-stretch to third, 3 ¾ lengths behind the eventual winner Mr Big News. Taishan figures to sit in a good stalking position again around fourth or fifth. Even though he was compromised by the fast pace, the nine-furlong distance remains a concern. He makes more sense to use in bottom slots. Underneath only.
10. Farmington Road, 10-1 (Quality Road – Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano – 5: 1-2-0): After a fast pace set him up, Farmington Road rallied for a runner-up finish in the Oaklawn Stakes. He had trouble holding a straight line, though, which possibly cost him the win. In this spot, a lively tempo is probable again with Nadal and Wells Bayou set to lock horns. Farmington Road could make the same wide rally and see what happens in the stretch run. On the negative side, he only earned a 111 on TimeformUS for his second-place to Wells Bayou and will need to move forward. He will also need a pace collapse. Both scenarios, however, are possible. Live longshot.

11. Wells Bayou, 6-1 (Lookin at Lucky – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 5: 3-1-0): As with Nadal, Wells Bayou only knows how to set the pace. He used those tactics successfully in his last two starts to finish runner-up in the Southwest Stakes and win the Louisiana Derby (G2) by 1 ½ lengths. Can he look Nadal in the eye early, put him away on the turn and hold off the stalkers and closers? At least he gets the outside position in a possible speed duel, which is more advantageous than contesting the pace on the inside. But he will need to use energy to cross over. This speedy colt will win other races, but Nadal’s presence makes him passable here. Toss.

Conclusion: King Guillermo gets the nod. He figures to show enough speed to stay close to Nadal and Wells Bayou without actually engaging with them. In terms of speed figures, King Guillermo already owns a 119 on TimeformUS and can move forward.

While the public should expect single-digit odds on King Guillermo this time, at least he will not start favored. Nadal could win, but much of the public will consider him a stone-cold lock.

If neither of those options sound enticing, then Silver Prospector is another one to consider off his sixth-place finish in the Rebel. Bettors may lay off him slightly, giving Silver Prospector better value this time. For those who could afford four horses, Farmington Road figures to make his move late at double-digit odds.

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Arkansas Derby Current Odds Genesis Open

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